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Wizard systems selections 20th January
"A" Sandown Race 3 No 2 Aberdeen Rose
"B" None
"C" Sandown race 1 no 1 Rulable
Eagle Farm race 6 no1 Kiwi Warrior
"D" /"E" None
Wizard systems selections 13th January
"A" Rosehill race 1 no 1 London Eye
Caulfield race 2 no 1 Alaska
Seas
"B" Gold Coast race 7 no 13 Shovoff
"C" Victoria Park Race 2 no 1 Cullen Bay
"D" Rosehill race 4 no 1 Calgary Prince
Caulfield race 3 no 1 Another
Misty
race 5 no 7 Miss Pennymoney
GoldCoast race 1 no 1 Sha Alma
race 5 no 13 Belle Du Jour
Working out the selections for 6th January 2001.
Sydney
Race 1 no 1 is C O W M Fv being F but not M cannot be A
or B bet.
Being M and Fv can be "C" or "D" bet and has 5 attributes so
Syd
1/1 is "D" bet.
Race 2 no 1 is M, no2 is Fv, no 8 is F no selection.
Race 3 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection.
Race 4 No 1 is M no 9 is F No 1 is Fv No 1 has 4 attributes Syd
4/1 is "D" bet
Race 5 No 5 is M and Fv No 6 is F - No5 has 2 attributes no selection.
Race 6 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection.
Race 7 No 2 is F M Fv as well as C O W T Syd
7/2 is "A" bet.
Race 8 No 2 is F and Fv no 1 is F. No 2 has 5 attributesSyd
8/2 is "D" bet.
Melbourne
Race 1 no stats no selection.
Race 2 No1 is F and M and Fv No 1 has all 7 attributes
Melb
2/1 is "A" bet.
Race 3 No 3 is m No 1 is F and Fv No 1 has 2
attributes no selection.
Race 4 No 1 is M Fv and C O W T no 2 is F No1
has 6 attributes Melb 4/1 is "C" bet.
Race 5 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection
Race 6 No 3 is M No 4 is F and Fv only, no selection.
Race 7 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection.
Race 8 No 2 is F. No 4 is M and Fv No 4 has 5 attributes
Melb 8/4 is "D" bet.
Brisbane
Race 1 No 8 is F. No 1 is M and Fv No 1 has 3 attributes - no selection.
Race 2 No 2 is F . No 1 is M and Fv No 1 has 6 attributes Bris
2/1 is "C" bet.
Race 3 no 1 is F. No 6 is M and Fv No 6 has 2 attributes - no selection.
Race 4 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection.
Race 5 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection.
Race 6 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection.
Race 7 No 5 is F and M but not Fv - no selection.
Race 8 No 2 is F and M but not Fv - no selection.
Adelaide
Race 1 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection
Race 2 insufficient stats no selection.
Race 3 no 8 is F No 3 is M and Fv No 3 has 3 attributes - no selection.
Race 4 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection
Race 5 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection
Race 6 No 5 is F. No 6 is M and Fv. No 6 has 4 attributes - Adelaide
6/6 is a "D" bet.
Race 7 F M and Fv all different contenders - no selection
Race 8 No 2 is F. No 1 is M and Fv. No 1 has 6 attributes
Adelaide 8/1 is "C" bet.
Now to follow this thread go to the "Staking" page.
Been quiet awhile - very busy - my alter ego is always busy around tax
time - and second alter ego is
a coordinator of Young Achievement which is also busy at the moment.(this
was August 1999)
But still been working on something that is producing a one in three
winstrike and 15% POT
this is the combination of The Turf Accountant's Ratings (refer
systems page) and the Winstep Staking Plan
(refer staking page ).
So wishing you a Happy Equine New Year I hope to maintain a running
summary until August 2000.
7th August 1999
| selection ID | RESULT | WIN DIV | Win Seq | Base Target | Adjd Target | Bet Amt. | Return | +/- on bet | Prog Bank |
| Clfd 2/3 | Unp | 1 | 10 | 50 | 5 | 0 | -5 | -5 | |
| Morp 2/1 | Unp | 1 | 25 | 50 | 5 | 0 | -5 | -10 | |
| Clfd 3/1 | Won | $2.20 | 1 | 40 | 50 | 5 | 11 | 6 | -4 |
| EgFm 3/1 | Unp | 2 | 44 | 88 | 9 | 0 | -9 | -13 | |
| Clfd 4/8 | Unp | 1 | 63 | 63 | 6 | 0 | -6 | -19 | |
| Morp 4/1 | Won | $2.10 | 1 | 79 | 79 | 8 | 16.80 | 8.8 | -10.2 |
| Morp 5/1 | Won | $2.40 | 2 | 80 | 160 | 16 | 38.40 | 22.4 | 12.2 |
| Rand 5/7 | Won | $2.50 | 4 | 68 | 272 | 27 | 67.5 | 40.5 | 52.7 |
| Rand 7/5 | Unp | 8 | 37 | 296 | 30 | 0 | -30 | 22.7 | |
| EgFm 8/2 | 2nd | 1 | 77 | 77 | 8 | 0 | -8 | 14.7 | |
| Morp 8/1 | Unp | 1 | 95 | 95 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 4.7 |
So to explain first row
Clfd 2/3 Means Caulfield race 2 no 3 is the selection
Unp the horse was unplaced
0 no win div
1 the win seq is at one to start
10 the target being the target for one race and no accum profit
or loss
50 adjusted target the adjusted target is always a min of 50
to make min bet 5
5 the amount to bet which is the adjusted target divided by the
safety margin of 10
0 the win div times the bet
-5 the result of this bet is $5 loss
-5 is the cumulative situation.
for bet 2 the target is 2 races @ 10 plus the 5 progressive loss = 25
the adjusted target is the minimum of 50
bet is 50 /10 = 5
we lose another 5 and prog result is -10.
for bet 3 the target is 3 races @ 10 plus progressive loss of 10 = 40
the adjusted target is the minimum of 50
bet is again 5
return is 5 times win div of 2.2 = 11
profit is 11 return minus 5 bet = 6
progressive is previous -10 plus 6 = -4
fourth bet target is 4 times 10 plus prog loss of 4 = 44
adjusted target is base target 44 times win seq 2 (following winner)
= 88
bet is 88/10 = 9
horse unplaced loss of 9 progressive situation - 13
fifth bet target is 5 times 10 plus prog loss
of 13 = 63
adjusted target is also 63 as win seq is now
back to 1 following loss and 63 is above minimum.
bet is 63/10 = 6
horse loses loss of 6 prog loss 19.
sixth bet target 6 times 10 plus prog loss 19
= 79
bet is 79/10 = 8
horse wins and pays $2.10 return is $16.80 profit
on bet $8.80 prog loss reduced to 10.2
seventh bet target is 7 times 10 plus prog loss
10.2 = 80.2
adjd target is base 80 times win seq 2 - following
win = 160
bet is 160/10 = 16
horse wins and pays $2.40 return is 16x$2.40
= $38.40 profit $22.40 prog now win $12.20
eighth bet target is 8 times 10 minus prog
win 12.2 = 68
adjd target is base 68 times win seq now 4 following
two wins = 272
bet 272/10 = 27 horse wins and pays $2.50 returns
$67.50 profit $40.50 prog profit $52.70
ninth bet target is 9 times 10 minus prog profit
of 52.7 (see how wins reduce bet size) = 37
adjd target is base 37 times win seq now 8 following
3 winners = 296
bet is 296/10 = 30
this one loses loss of 30 prog profit reduced
to 22.70
tenth bet target is 10x10 = 100 minus prog profit
22.7 = 77
win seq now back to 1 following loss so adjd
target = 77
bet is 77/10 = 8
we lose 8 and prof profit is now 14.7
eleventh bet target is 11x10 minus prog profit
of 14.7 = 95
adjust is still 95
bet is 95/10 = 10
we lose 10 and profit for the day is just $4.70
However flat staking would have shown a loss as
we had a total of 11 bets for a total return on 4 winners of $9.20
I will leave this detailed explanation at the
top and summarise the rest in reverse order below:
14th August
| Bet ID | result | win div | win seq | base target | adj target | bet | return | +/- bet | Prog |
| Rose 2/6 | Won | $3.30 | 1 | 116 | 116 | 12 | $39.30 | $27.30 | $32 |
| MnVly 3/2 | 3rd | 2 | 98 | 196 | 20 | 0 | -20 | $12 | |
| EgFm 4/11 | Unp | 1 | 128 | 128 | 13 | 0 | -13 | -$1 | |
| MnVly 4/4 | Won | $1.90 | 1 | 151 | 151 | 15 | $28.50 | 13.50 | $12.50 |
| Chelt 5/1 | Unp | 2 | 148 | 296 | 30 | 0 | -30 | -$17.50 | |
| EgFm 5/2 | Unp | 1 | 187 | 187 | 19 | 0 | -19 | -$36.50 | |
| MnVly 5/7 | Unp | 1 | 217 | 217 | 22 | 0 | -22 | -$58.50 | |
| Rose 5/3 | Won | $1.60 | 1 | 249 | 249 | 25 | 40 | 15 | -$43.50 |
| Rose 6/10 | Won | $2.40 | 2 | 244 | 488 | 49 | 117.60 | 68.60 | $25.10 |
| EgFm 8/2 | 3rd | 4 | 175 | 700 | 70 | 0 | -70 | -$44.90 | |
| Rose 8/1 | 2nd | 1 | 255 | 255 | 26 | 0 | -26 | -$70.90 |
and do try the 60% place parlay
simulator.
AND MOST IMPORTANT --- HAVE FUN....
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Last modified: 16/4/99