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This page will list the best of the correspondence that we receive from you the real participants in this website, so write or email and let us know what you think.
Don't just go away click on the 'email' address below and have your say..........
Here is a very interesting email that I would like to share with you all.
Subject: Your Site Date: Wed, 29 Oct 1997 05:14:05 -0700 From: Paul Campbell <pc@modemss.brisnet.org.au> To: turfacts@midcoast.com.au
Tony, congrats on a wonderful job. As a fellow ausracer, I have enjoyed your postings greatly. In particular the earlier ones on escalators, stepladders etc. I developed a little method or staking plan which was moulded from yours. I won't send you some of the findings unless you indicate you wish me too, however, the results from some 420 wagers are a bit too good to believe. I have two escalators operating per bettable race. The win escalator unravels: 1,2,3,5,7,10,14,21,35,55,75,105. The place escalator follows your 50% system with wins over $2.00 meaning a revert to base. The initial win bet is $5 and the place $10. One escalator has proven to back up the other in times of strife with only two busts in 420. A bust occurs when your current balance for the series minus 100 times your win stake unit ($500). Awin for a series occurs when your balance is 10 times the win stake unit ($50). Each time you make $50 return to base. After the initial series has realised a $1000 profit jump to Series two which is $10/$20 with a bust of $1000 and a win of $100. Again, after $1000 realised jump toSeries three which is $20/$40 with a bust of $2000 and win of $200. In 420 bets I went through 2 full sets plus a completion of series one on the third. Sorry if this sounds like garbage but I feel there is no-one better qualified to make a judgement than yourself. The 420 bets returned a profit of approx. $9000 at a POT of about 40%. I don't have the figures here at present but I have detailed graphs, tables, etc. if you're up to a bit of analysis. The thing that gets me is if I have achieved such good results, it must be wrong because why aren't others getting such returns. Why do pro punters settle for 2-3% on turnover. Apologies again I have rambled a fair bit. Nice Site. I'm outa here. Paul Campbell Brisbane
THE TURF ACCOUNTANT REPLIES:
'ausrace' is a 'mailbox' for persons interested in horseracing and enquiries may be make by contacting majordomo@cygnus.uwa.edu.au. Escalators, stepladders etc are staking strategies that will be discussed on the staking page of this site.
Paul has done what I hope most readers will be able to do as time goes by, he has used my principles to develop his own application THIS IS THE WAY TO GO. In this case Paul has used my principles in relation to staking, similarly I hope that readers, including Paul, will use my principles in regard to System Development and Money Management, that should be your next step Paul - read the page on Money Management and develop those principles into your own Money Management Plan to go along with the above staking.
Paul has decided to quit each series when he
has made 10 times his base bet, and 'quit' when he loses 100 times his
base bet.
Paul says he has made 420 bets and made $9,000
which is 40% POT this means Paul has outlaid $22,500 on the 420 bets so
his average bet size was $53.
Paul explain how he starts off with a $5 bet
until he wins $50 or loses $500.
He does this 20 times and accumulates $1,000
profit, he then starts a $10 series.
In the $10 series he bets $10 units until
he wins $100 or loses $1000.
He does this 10 times until he has won a further
$1000.
He then goes to a $20 series until he wins
a futher $1000.
And then goes back to base and starts all
over again - or that is how I interpret what he said -although it must
not be 'quite right' because he says he has completed two series and step
one of a third series and had 2 'busts' and is $9,000 ahead.
But by my calculations 2 series plus one step
in 3rd would produce only $7,000 gross profit and say the two 'busts' were
each only $500 then the net profit would be $6,000 rather than $9,000.
??
Advice: I would be inclined to go the same number of steps each bracket rather than the same number of dollars i.e:
$5 series as you do to win $50 or lose $500 - 10 times. win $500.
$10 series to win $100 or lose $1000 - 10 times. win $1000.
$20 series to win $200 or lose $2000 - 10 times. win $2000.
Win $3,500 on series, then with the $3,500 'in the bank' I would start the next series at $10 and go $10 $20 $40 to win $7,000 on the series, then with $10,500 in the bank I would to $20 $40 $80 to win $14,000, and finally with $24,500 in the bank I would go $40 $80 $100 to win $22,000 and $46,500 for the complete round. This would normally take around 500 - 700 bets if you were running three systems simultaneously with say 4 bets per system per week this would be approximately one years activity with very minimal risk.
Paul I would be interested in 'all' the gory detail as I am a statistical buff and love this sort of analysis, especially those that prove all the statistical theorists wrong.
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